The energy transition in Central and Eastern Europe has been dramatically upended by global geoeconomic competition, rendering energy security and climate ambition inseparable goals. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed deep structural vulnerabilities across the region, triggering an unprecedented energy price shock and phasing out Russian fossil fuels amid rising geoeconomic strain. Emergency measures stabilised energy markets and improved short-term supply security, yet they cannot replace policy foresight and strategy.

Drawing on CSD’s Energy and Climate Security Risk Index, and a Discrete Choice Experiment carried out in Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, and Romania, this analysis shows that decarbonisation has advanced primarily in the power sector. Buildings, heating, transport, and industry remain fossil-fuel-dependent, leading to rising affordability risks. Public support for continuing the low-carbon transition has become more conditional. Citizens accept ambitious policies when they reduce everyday risks, distribute costs fairly, and deliver visible, shared benefits for all.